The Ultimate Guide to
Coastal Real Estate in Florida

First Quarter 2026

Written by Dr. Alex Stewart

Founder of The Market Distillery, former financial analyst, mortgage banker, and university professor.

Florida has 13 named coasts. They go all around the state from the Pensacola panhandle, around the Gulf, down to the Keys, and back up the Atlantic to Jacksonville.

Each coast has its own identity. Its own market. Its own story.

This page is your map.

If you live here, it shows you what's happening in your back yard.

If you don't, it shows you where the action is. Where to visit. Where to invest. Where to consider moving.

One Florida coast quietly outperformed every other one this quarter. By the end of this page, you'll know which.

 

Florida is leading the national housing recovery.

Let's start with some summary numbers for the state to go over the basics:

Closed Sales Q1 2026
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Closed Sales Q1 2025
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prior year
Wtd Median Price 2026
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Coverage
13 + Interior
all 67 FL counties

The 85,263 single-family homes sold in Florida in the first three months of 2026. That's up 6.5% from a year ago.

Across the country, home sales were flat. So Florida is moving while the rest of the country is still warming up.

But the average home price barely changed here. It dropped 0.4% to about $403,000.

That means buyers came back. Prices didn't go with them.

For Floridians, this is the volume rebound you've been watching for. For people looking in, this is your window.

Florida is its own animal.

Florida is the third largest state by population. Plus, more than 140 million people visit each year.

People keep moving in. The weather. The lifestyle. No state income tax.

But weather has another side. Florida sits in the middle of hurricane country. Storms shape neighborhoods, prices, and insurance costs.

You can't read the Florida market without reading the storm map too.

That's why we look at it coast by coast. Each one tells a different mix of demand, supply, and storm history.

Year-over-Year Price Change, 2003–2020
Zoomed in on the boom, bust, and recovery around 2008
Source: FHFA via FRED  ·  The Market Distillery
HOW LONG YOU OWN MATTERS MOST

What do the numbers show by ownership timeline?

First, let's look at how often property prices increased over different time frames.

Each box below shows how often average prices in Northeast Florida were higher at the end of that period than at the start, based on every historical window in the data going back to 1978.

Closed Sales YoY % by Coast

Wtd Median Price YoY % by Coast

Next, we'll consider the average price growth in total over the various time frames people could own real estate:

Average Total Appreciation by Ownership Timeframe
How much average prices grew over each ownership timeframe, based on all historical windows 1978–2025
Source: FHFA via FRED  ·  The Market Distillery

As you can see, the longer you own real estate, the higher the growth in value you're likely to get.

There is one important point to make before we assume real estate goes up, even in the short-term...

Watch out if you might need to sell within a few years.

Selling a home typically costs 6-8% of the sale price in agent commissions and closing fees. That means even if prices rise, a short hold can still result in a net loss once you factor in what it costs to sell. At a typical appreciation pace, you'd need to hold for roughly 2-3 years just to break even on transaction costs, and more if the market has been relatively flat.

This is the real risk of a short hold. It's not always that prices fall. Sometimes it's that they don't rise fast enough to cover the cost of selling. If there's a real chance you'd need to move within 3 years, that's the conversation to have with your agent before buying.

RUN YOUR NUMBERS

What could your home be worth over time?

Now, we can run your scenario so you can apply these numbers to your own situation.

Use the calculator below to enter a home price and how long you plan to stay.

You'll see the average historical outcome plus the best and worst cases from actual Northeast Florida history. This helps you get an idea for what could really happen over time.

At the bottom of the calculator, it shows the percent of times that property prices were higher over your specific ownership timeline based on historical data.

Coast▲▼ Counties▲▼ Sales 25▲▼ Sales 26▲▼ Sales YoY▲▼ Price 25▲▼ Price 26▲▼ Price YoY▲▼
UNDERSTANDING WHY

What actually drives home values?

Prices don't go up by accident. A few real forces push them higher over time. And for values to fall significantly, something very specific has to go wrong.

67 of 67 counties
County▲▼ Coast▲▼ Sales 25▲▼ Sales 26▲▼ Sales YoY▲▼ Price 25▲▼ Price 26▲▼ Price YoY▲▼
GulfForgotten Coast99173▲ 74.7%$485,000$402,500▼ -17.0%
DixieNature Coast4068▲ 70.0%$165,000$180,000▲ 9.1%
GilchristInterior3653▲ 47.2%$263,900$285,000▲ 8.0%
FranklinForgotten Coast5172▲ 41.2%$555,000$350,000▼ -36.9%
LevyNature Coast154208▲ 35.1%$247,450$240,900▼ -2.6%
TaylorNature Coast4054▲ 35.0%$165,000$200,000▲ 21.2%
CharlotteLee Island Coast1,5061,930▲ 28.2%$330,000$309,900▼ -6.1%
Santa RosaEmerald Coast8451,041▲ 23.2%$350,450$354,995▲ 1.3%
FlaglerFirst Coast761937▲ 23.1%$359,900$362,245▲ 0.7%
MartinTreasure Coast705863▲ 22.4%$460,376$420,000▼ -8.8%
BayForgotten Coast9751,193▲ 22.4%$340,000$345,000▲ 1.5%
JeffersonInterior2733▲ 22.2%$315,000$254,000▼ -19.4%
Indian RiverTreasure Coast812991▲ 22.0%$385,000$399,000▲ 3.6%
LeeLee Island Coast4,4025,335▲ 21.2%$375,000$359,000▼ -4.3%
OkaloosaEmerald Coast8531,032▲ 21.0%$353,450$364,900▲ 3.2%
MadisonInterior2429▲ 20.8%$190,000$199,950▲ 5.2%
WaltonEmerald Coast752908▲ 20.7%$650,000$724,313▲ 11.4%
CollierParadise Coast2,2342,697▲ 20.7%$675,000$630,000▼ -6.7%
NassauFirst Coast432518▲ 19.9%$501,900$479,500▼ -4.5%
SuwanneeInterior88104▲ 18.2%$240,500$265,000▲ 10.2%
MonroeFlorida Keys402475▲ 18.2%$950,000$950,000■ 0.0%
DeSotoInterior6676▲ 15.2%$250,000$248,500▼ -0.6%
SarasotaCultural Coast2,8343,241▲ 14.4%$430,739$410,000▼ -4.8%
CitrusNature Coast1,0001,134▲ 13.4%$264,490$265,550▲ 0.4%
St. JohnsFirst Coast1,5731,756▲ 11.6%$481,245$476,745▼ -0.9%
WashingtonInterior6977▲ 11.6%$230,000$223,045▼ -3.0%
Palm BeachGold Coast5,4296,028▲ 11.0%$515,000$520,000▲ 1.0%
VolusiaFun Coast2,3602,601▲ 10.2%$340,000$340,000■ 0.0%
OkeechobeeInterior113123▲ 8.8%$250,000$267,500▲ 7.0%
JacksonInterior7480▲ 8.1%$182,500$200,000▲ 9.6%
WakullaForgotten Coast162175▲ 8.0%$297,400$295,000▼ -0.8%
LakeInterior1,7331,855▲ 7.0%$375,000$357,000▼ -4.8%
BrevardSpace Coast2,6312,809▲ 6.8%$350,000$346,000▼ -1.1%
ManateeCultural Coast2,5072,668▲ 6.4%$409,000$412,250▲ 0.8%
Miami-DadeGold Coast4,8265,113▲ 5.9%$570,000$565,000▼ -0.9%
EscambiaEmerald Coast1,0471,109▲ 5.9%$294,990$300,000▲ 1.7%
HamiltonInterior1718▲ 5.9%$229,000$194,500▼ -15.1%
St. LucieTreasure Coast1,4441,522▲ 5.4%$379,995$373,000▼ -1.8%
LeonInterior687722▲ 5.1%$290,000$308,000▲ 6.2%
MarionInterior2,2542,364▲ 4.9%$277,000$269,900▼ -2.6%
ClayInterior765796▲ 4.1%$340,000$340,000■ 0.0%
PinellasSun Coast4,0714,229▲ 3.9%$390,000$400,000▲ 2.6%
SumterInterior530546▲ 3.0%$345,000$330,000▼ -4.3%
HernandoNature Coast1,1311,159▲ 2.5%$315,990$305,990▼ -3.2%
HighlandsInterior473481▲ 1.7%$256,000$255,000▼ -0.4%
DuvalFirst Coast2,9703,016▲ 1.5%$305,000$303,159▼ -0.6%
ColumbiaInterior157159▲ 1.3%$250,000$265,000▲ 6.0%
BrowardGold Coast5,3015,270▼ -0.6%$455,000$450,000▼ -1.1%
BakerInterior4847▼ -2.1%$300,000$290,000▼ -3.3%
OrangeInterior3,5183,421▼ -2.8%$435,000$425,000▼ -2.3%
AlachuaInterior687668▼ -2.8%$320,990$314,990▼ -1.9%
HillsboroughSun Coast4,2444,068▼ -4.1%$385,000$393,500▲ 2.2%
PolkInterior3,1713,019▼ -4.8%$310,740$304,000▼ -2.2%
OsceolaInterior1,8961,799▼ -5.1%$387,250$400,995▲ 3.5%
PutnamInterior238225▼ -5.5%$190,000$212,444▲ 11.8%
SeminoleInterior1,2581,187▼ -5.6%$412,000$400,290▼ -2.8%
HolmesInterior3229▼ -9.4%$187,500$183,000▼ -2.4%
HendryInterior117101▼ -13.7%$299,495$279,500▼ -6.7%
LafayetteInterior1412▼ -14.3%$280,000$286,500▲ 2.3%
PascoNature Coast3,1612,662▼ -15.8%$330,450$329,990▼ -0.1%
GadsdenInterior7359▼ -19.2%$229,000$229,000■ 0.0%
BradfordInterior6047▼ -21.7%$243,000$305,000▲ 25.5%
CalhounInterior118▼ -27.3%$193,500$192,500▼ -0.5%
GladesInterior4126▼ -36.6%$240,000$205,000▼ -14.6%
HardeeInterior3924▼ -38.5%$266,750$258,000▼ -3.3%
LibertyInterior95▼ -44.4%$194,000$230,000▲ 18.6%
UnionInterior1515■ 0.0%$250,000$253,000▲ 1.2%