Is now a good time to buy a house?
Oct 19, 2026
Is negativity actually a sign to buy? 😳
Each week we get negative headlines coming from all different angles.
It's enough to make even the most confident people start to wonder if they're missing something.
But I'll tell you what...
When you dig into the details, the fear starts to fade.
And this got me thinking about how much fear impacts our decisions - especially in today's real estate market.
Either we play it safe with the moves we make or we decide to make no move at all.
But what does the big picture show us about fear and real estate? When people think its a bad time to buy, does it mean trouble is around the corner?
Let's look and see!
Does fear in the real estate market hint at future price moves?
In order to look into this, we first need a way to measure the mood in the market.
The University of Michigan surveys consumers across America to measure their opinion on a variety of things related to the economy and their finances.
The question we care about is, "is now a good time to buy a house?"
And to see how the moods changed along with home prices, I've charted the two together:
There's some major things we need to highlight in this chart:
- First, notice how consistently home values rise over time. This is on a logarithmic scale, so that the % growth is even. Otherwise, prices doubling back in the 70's would be impossible to see because prices have gotten so high today.
- Second, even in 2008, people thought it was a good time to buy because prices and rates were falling. Since the 70's, Americans have felt that buying a house made sense most of the time (even in the middle of the 2008 crash).
- Third, higher/rising interest rates has caused us to get negative on housing twice. Back in the 80's and most importantly, today.
- Lastly, people feeling negative on the housing markets hasn't predicted anything about future prices (so far). Contrary to what a lot of people think, negative headlines and attitudes about the market haven't been accurate warning signs.
Negativity feels smart. Positivity is profitable. 💡
If your goals is to get eyeballs and interviews, being negative and calling for a crash will do just that.
We worry that all the people calling for a crash could be right.
We don't have much to say when people say they're scared and think they should just hold off.
But this chart should change the way you and your customers think about the market.
If history has shown us anything, negativity about the market hasn't predicted disaster.
So, this week, tune out the noise.
Unsubscribe to the fear.
Share this article with your people who need a little perspective.
See you next Monday!
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
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