The 2008 Financial Crisis: Impact on Florida's Real EstateDec 03, 2023
The home stretch. We have one month left in 2023. 🗓️
I'm looking forward to recapping 2023 and forecasting 2024 towards the end of January as there is a ton to unpack.
If you want to book this in-person presentation for your office, submit a speaking request for my MarketPulse 360 here. 🎤
One thing still hasn't changed though: clients (and maybe even you) have questions and concerns about the market.
A major fear in the market is a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis.
To that end, we should take some time to go back and look at what actually occurred locally during the event to get some context. 🧐
And away we go!
The 2008 Crisis in Jacksonville
Let's begin by zooming in on Jacksonville and examining the data on foreclosures since 2008. 🔎
Notice that foreclosures popped up a little through the first half of 2009, but didn't really get going until the end of 2009.
This is really important because the financial crisis started rearing its head in 2007.
Consider this, the stock market had fallen 50% and already started rebounding before foreclosures started showing up in Jacksonville. 🤯
That's nuts to me and shows how much of a lag there was locally.
I didn't chart it this week, but short sales were the leading indicator of trouble compared to foreclosures.
Fast forward to today and we've got almost no foreclosures or short sales as inventory has gotten so scarce, owners are enjoying locked-in low payments, and buyer demand is still elevated. 😎
Zooming Out in Florida
Next, let's zoom out and consider other parts of Florida to get some context. 🗺️
This chart has Florida, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando displayed.
Their story is a little different than Jacksonville.
Interestingly, Tampa was the leader in foreclosures at the start of the crisis. 😲
Miami and Orlando had more delay to the start of foreclosures, but quickly outpaced Tampa when they got going.
Remember, the larger the city, the more foreclosures they'll have.
When compared evenly, Orlando actually had a more foreclosures as a percentage of sales than the other metros. 💡
Also, it's worth noting the second wave of foreclosures that occurred throughout the state beginning in 2014.
It took until 2017 to work through all the foreclosures and similar to Jacksonville, there are essentially no foreclosure or short sales throughout the state today. 😵💫
There are a few main takeaways from this information:
- 📍 Local markets are affected differently by each financial crisis (and boom). We need to look at our history locally to see how we could be in the future.
- 🧐 It appears that if we pay attention to this data, we can get a decent head's up of trouble coming in Jacksonville (and other areas). I'd wager that we'll see major issues crop up in other parts of the country first (cough cough California New York cough cough).
- 👍 Currently, we are in relatively great shape in the housing market. There very few foreclosures and prices will remain supported without any type of significantly distressed selling taking place.
If you're a real estate agent, this is information you want to be sure to share with your clients.
Ask them what questions they have after looking at this and let me know so we can explore them together. 🤝
There's no guarantees about the future, but we can examine the data to get as much context as possible.
This helps us to make informed decisions and feel as confident as possible about where things stand today.
Let's finish the year strong and if you want some help implementing this type of information into your business, snag one of the last seats in my coaching membership today. 🚀
Whenever you're ready, there are 3 ways I can help you:
- 🎯 Market Insiders Coaching Membership: Join an exclusive group of Realtors focused on becoming experts in our local Jacksonville market. This membership gives you access to monthly live coaching from yours truly, a member-only community for private updates and discussions, and additional resources to address clients questions and supercharge your business.
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- 👩💻 How to Use Market Stats in Your Business: Accelerate your business growth by learning how to use data. This course will help you more easily understand the market, improve your client presentations, and increase your conversion rate with clients. No finance degree required as I lay everything out in very simple terms.
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- 📊 Schedule a live presentation: Want to learn in person? I offer the MarketPulse 360 presentation that connects all the dots (national to local) so you get a comprehensive breakdown of today's market. It's 2 hours of beautiful charts designed to give you all the major trends you need to know about and address the most common questions in the market. You'll walk out feeling more confident, with resources to use in your business, and a level above the rest of the Realtors who are wandering around blindly.
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