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Mortgage Trends Uncovered: Introducing the Mortgage Momentum Index (MMI)

homebuyer demand leading indicator mmi mortgage mortgage momentum index real estate Jan 15, 2024
mortgage momentum index MMI

If you're like me, you're on a quest to make sense of the real estate market to grow your business. ๐Ÿ•ต๏ธ‍โ™‚๏ธ

The challenge we face is anticipating what will come in the future.

One way to handle this is to identify major trends in the market and assume they'll continue. ๐Ÿ“ˆ

It can work temporarily, but trends always change and you can get burned.

Another approach is to identify leading indicators and watch them closely. ๐Ÿ’ก

These are data points that occur early in the home buying process and would allow us to get a head's up on future activity.

For example, it's very unlikely that home prices will fall if the number of homes for sale stays relatively low. ๐Ÿ˜ฒ

In this case, the number of homes for sale on the market is a leading indicator for changes in home prices.

Another leading indicator is mortgage applications. โœ…

It's the first step in the home buying journey and our focus this week.


Mortgage Demand is Rising

In the top chart, you can see the most recent 12 weeks of national mortgage application data from the Mortgage Banker's Association (MBA).

The most recent release came in at +9.9%. This means that there was an increase in people applying for mortgages nationally. ๐Ÿ’ช

That's a strong rebound from the previous week which was down 10.7% (because it was for the week between Christmas and New Years).

In the bottom chart, you'll see a brand new tool I've created.

I'm very excited to introduce you to the Mortgage Momentum Index (MMI version 1.0). ๐Ÿ“Š

The MMI is designed to provide a longer-term look at the change in mortgage applications so we can see major trends in homebuyer demand.

Simply put, as the index increases, more people are in the market to buy real estate and vice versa. ๐Ÿ‘

Dr. Alex Stewart


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