The real reason why the real estate market is stuck
Jun 22, 2025
Real Estate's Challenge: The Have To's vs. The Want To's ⚖️
There's a lot of frustration in real estate markets today - especially in the Southeast & Florida.
I bet you've heard this lately:
"My sellers would like to sell, but they don't have to."
Or maybe "my buyers want to own their own home, but they're just not taking action right now."
These statements highlight a big difference in today's real estate market compared to the one of a few years ago.
In 2021, there were more people wanting to buy than there were houses to buy. And sellers who hadn't even thought about selling were suddenly under contract and counting their profits.
Today's real estate market looks a lot different.
Let's take a closer look...
Sellers 🙋♂️ vs. Testers 🤷♂️ Listing Homes
We've been watching as inventory has been growing, but it's a totally different situation than back in 2008.
During the Great Financial Crisis, people listing homes for sale HAD to sell - and do it quickly.
Either they were trying to get out from under their properties before things got worse (often resulting in a short sale) or the banks were forcing sales through foreclosures.
Today's market is largely split into two types of sellers:
- Sellers: people who are serious about selling and have (potentially) listed their home at a price that will cause it to actually sell (active listings under 60 days on market)
- Testers: people who clearly are above the market and just testing the waters to see if anyone will bite (active listings 60+ days on market). They don't have to sell and would if a buyer paid their asking price.
In fact, as of a week ago, our market was at least 56% testers and at most 44% true sellers:
Chances are good a decent portion of that 44% will roll over into the tester category as time goes.
Are buyers set up for disappointment? 😳
Shifting over to the other side of the equation, the big question is "when will buyers re-engage In the real estate market?"
Pent up demand has been growing (people who want to buy but aren't) while home purchases have been declining as interest rates remain in the high 6's.
Everyone wants lower rates so they can make a move, but how low do rates need to go?
Here's recent data from Realtor.com that gives insight on what rates buyers are waiting for to take action:
This survey data highlights just how long we might be facing a hesitant buyer pool.
Over the past 54 years, mortgage rates have generally been between 4.5% and 11%.
If we stayed within this range (which is highly likely btw), 51% of the market could remain on the sidelines.
It would take major life changes to spur action (marriage, kids, retirement, divorce, etc.) and that might not happen quickly.
Are you building your business to win in an environment that's running at half speed?
Opportunities for Real Estate Agents 🚀
What do we do with this? Here's a few ideas to consider:
- 😲 It's all about expectations - theirs and yours.
All frustrations come from missed expectations. We've got sellers who might be expecting higher offers on their houses, buyers expecting lower rates in the near future, and Realtors expecting both. It's fair to say that if we all adjusted our expectations more towards reality, we'd be less frustrated with the process, market, and each other. - 🙋♂️ Focus on the "have to" clients.
Most Realtors market themselves in general and will work with anyone, anywhere within their MLS. That's a huge mistake. You end up with a bunch of clients who test the market but don't end up closing. Lots of hours of effort for very little pay. Instead, think about who has to buy or sell and how to get in front of them. Even in the toughest markets, these clients will go to the closing table. - 👨🏫 Enhance your market conversations.
We have a lot of buyers saying when rates go down, then they'll buy. The conversation is all about speculation and what may happen in the future. But when you go through the numbers and look at the long-term trends, the uncertainty of today starts to fade away. Refocus your people on the probable and what's most likely to occur. Nobody can predict rates, but we know with a good deal of certainty that the system is rigged to go up, which includes home prices. Help your people see this clearly.
Of course, this is easier to say and harder to do.
But it's absolutely possible when you focus on it.
And it's something we'll be talking about more at my Member Mastermind this coming Tuesday.
Real estate is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep moving forward a little every day and you'll be amazed how far you go! 🚀
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
FAQs about the Real Estate Market in 2025
- Are there currently too many sellers in the U.S. housing market? This depends on where you are in the country. Many areas are experiencing higher levels of homes for sale on the market, but are getting back to pre-pandemic norms. Some areas in South Florida are at risk of more serious price correction with months of supply ranging from 10-12.
- What factors are contributing to the high number of home sellers? The MLS statistics don't show an rise in home sellers - we're getting the normal number of people listing their home. The reason homes are building up and sitting on the market is because buyers have backed away from the market. Relatively high interest rates, a stock market correction in the first quarter of 2025, and uncertainty with tariffs all contribute to buyer hesitancy.
- How does the number of sellers compare to buyers in Miami? In Miami, the seller market has been robust, with sellers often outnumbering buyers, especially in the current economic climate. Reports from local real estate agents indicate that Miami has seen a surge in listings, with some neighborhoods experiencing a seller-to-buyer ratio of 2:1.
- What impact does the current seller-to-buyer ratio have on home prices? When sellers outnumber buyers, it can lead to a decrease in home prices as the competition among sellers intensifies. Currently, most markets in Florida are experiencing small to moderate price corrections. The declines pale in comparison to the huge price increases experienced during the 2021 boom.
- How has the pandemic influenced the number of sellers in the real estate market? During the pandemic, the real estate market was controlled by sellers as there were far more buyers than sellers. This was because interest rates were at all-time lows, money was plentiful, and relocation to Florida was at all-time highs. Since the pandemic, markets have normalized and are potentially correcting towards the long-term growth rates.
- What should homebuyers consider when there are many sellers in the market? In most cases, buyers will have an edge in negotiations given the abundance of sellers and lack of buyers. The luxury market remains competitive in most parts of Florida so you should prioritize asking your real estate agent for guidance on negotiations.
- How are mortgage rates affecting the balance between buyers and sellers? Higher mortgage rates can lead to fewer buyers in the market, further favoring sellers. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have remained between 6.5% and 7% from 2023 to 2025.
- Is the trend of many sellers likely to continue into 2026? Given the number of sellers locked in with ultra low interest rates, it's unlikely that we would see a total imbalance of sellers rushing to the market. Most sellers don't have to sell which limits the risk of a 2008-type repeat crash because the sellers won't push prices down too far to force a sale.
Realtors, want help understanding the local market? 🚀
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