The Big Question: Should You Buy Real Estate At The Top?
May 05, 2024
The ideas in this week's letter are from my brand new MarketPulse 360.
One of my main purposes with this presentation is to help us look at the market from different perspectives.
"Change the way you look at things and the things you look at change."
- Wayne Dyer
By the way, here are the ways to come see the full presentation live:
- May 8th 10AM-1PM @ UNF Arena (open to all). About 20 spots left and all you need to do is RSVP with Taylor via email: [email protected]
- May 10th 9AM-12PM @ Landmark Title (member's only). Our private event for current coaching members.
- May 15th 9AM-12PM @ KW Atlantic Beach (KW Atlantic Partners agents only). Special event for KWAP agents offered by KW Atlantic Beach and Southside.
If you want me to present to your office in the future, click here.
Now, onto a BIG idea..
Should you buy at the top?
With home prices at or near all-time highs, a lot of people are worried about buying at the top of the market (a valid concern). π°
It feels wrong given the age-old advice: buy low, sell high.
But everything changes depending on what prices do in the future.
If prices keep going up, what used to be the top is now considered a low price. π‘
Just ask anyone who bought in 2020 as we were just getting back to the high prices from 2007.
Here are the stats on the topic:
Going back 45 years in Jacksonville we find that prices are within 10% of that timeframe's top 87% of the time (green portion of the line).
In other words, the green line shows that we're very near all-time high's for most of the history of the real estate market. π³
The other 13% of the time, prices were lower due to the 2008 financial crisis (red portion of the line).
This concept applies to most markets around the country as well.
The truth is real estate prices tend to go up and are almost always near the top (at that point In time). π€―
It's probably something you haven't thought about before, but when you realize it, suddenly, buying at the top doesn't seem as rare or risky.
Finding Opportunity
We have to ask ourselves a question: do we anticipate prices will continue to rise? π€
If so, then buying at the top shouldn't be that concerning.
To that end, consider these trends:
- π Population is rising in Florida
- ποΈ We have around 3-5 months of supply
- ποΈ Builders are moderating their building pace
- π The Florida economy is growing the fastest out of any of the states
- π° The government is spending massive amounts of money
- π₯³ It appears the Fed may end its tightening cycle
Put it all together and you get a recipe for higher prices - especially in Florida real estate.
Most people predicting doom for the housing market (to get views π) cite the rising inventory as the primary concern.
They're focusing on how much higher everything is since 2022.
β When it doubt, zoom out.
You'll see we're currently normalizing back to pre-pandemic levels and are far from crash-type inventory.
Cant wait to see everyone in person at the upcoming events! π
Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder
Also, are you a real estate agent and looking to grow your business using information like this?
Here's 3 ways to dive deeper:
- π― Market Insiders Coaching Membership: Join an exclusive group of Realtors focused on becoming experts in our local Jacksonville market. This membership gives you access to monthly live coaching from yours truly, a member-only community for private updates and discussions, and additional resources to address clients questions and supercharge your business.
Rated 9.65 out of 10 for value to their business by my members. - π©π» Digital Course: How to Use Market Stats in Your Business: Accelerate your business growth by learning how to use data. This course will help you more easily understand the market, improve your client presentations, and increase your conversion rate with clients. No finance degree required as I lay everything out in very simple terms.
Rated 9.84 out of 10 for value to their business by 100+ Realtors. - π Schedule a live presentation: Want to learn in person? I offer the MarketPulse 360 presentation that connects all the dots (national to local) so you get a comprehensive breakdown of today's market. It's 2 hours of beautiful charts designed to give you all the major trends you need to know about and address the most common questions in the market. You'll walk out feeling more confident, with resources to use in your business, and a level above the rest of the Realtors who are wandering around blindly.
Rated 9.74 out of 10 for value to their business by 600+ Realtors.
