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Mortgage Rates: How Are Interest Rates Trending in 2024?

10 year treasury interest rates mortgage rates technical analysis Apr 07, 2024
Mortgage Rate trends for real estate agents in 2024

It's shaping up to be a beautiful Spring.

There's just one nagging issue that is putting a damper on things: rising interest rates. πŸ“ˆ

After a ~25% decline from October to December 2023, rates have marched back and are 16% higher since the start of 2024.

It this feels like deja vu, you're not wrong. πŸ‘―‍♀️

Rates fell ~20% from October to December of 2022.

They then bounced around 13-18% higher in the following months.

Let's take a closer look, shall we?


Rates Keep On Rising

Above is a chart of one of the most important economic indicators: the rate on a 10 year treasury (10YR). 

The primary reason we analyze and track this is because it's updated live during the day and is a near perfect proxy for mortgage rates. 😲

The reason the 10YR and mortgage rates move so closely is because the average person holds a mortgage for 10 years instead of 30. πŸ’‘

If you know what the 10YR is doing, you'll know what mortgage rates are doing.

Now, back to the chart. πŸ“Š

I've got some lines drawn on it to help us gain see some of the big picture trends taking place.

This is called technical analysis if you want to sound fancy.

The orange lines and shaded areas are major trends that rates are moving within.

Similar to stocks, bonds tend to move in up- and down-trends for various periods of time. 

Economic updates, world events, and investor activity can shift the trends.

Also, you can see a bunch of horizontal dotted lines on the chart. 

These mark levels where rates have typically bounced off in the past. πŸ“ˆπŸ“‰

They call these support and resistance lines depending on if rates are above or below the lines.

In plain english, it's like ceilings and floors for rates as they move. 

With this extra context drawn on the chart, we can see that we are currently in an up-trend on rates and headed to 4.5%.

The last couple times this happened, mortgage rates went to 7.5% (they're currently around 6.8%). πŸ‘€


Finding Opportunity

What do we do with this information?

1️⃣ To start, we should take a moment and recognize that it's unwise to suggest anyone buy  "and then just refi when rates come down."

The mob of rate daters from 2022 aren't looking too good right now. 🀦‍♂️

As advisors and experts, we need to recognize that our credibility should be priority numero uno and there's no sure thing when it comes to interest rates.

Provide the relevant facts, add context using history and other markets, and let the clients make their decisions on what's best for them - even if it's not taking action right now.

It isn't about selling a house, it's about providing intelligent guidance so that our clients can make informed decisions. 🧠

2️⃣ Next, this is further evidence that waiting isn't likely to result in a better deal for our clients.

We've already seen rates rise like this before and know that homes didn't go on a fire sale. 

Cash purchases make up ~30-40% of the transactions in Florida (and many other parts of the country) and there's still a lot of money sloshing around out there - making it's way into real estate. πŸ’΅

I expect a similar playbook as last year to shape up. We'll be talking about this in-depth in coaching.

Those with market expertise will successfully navigate these changes 🀩, while those without will likely struggle. πŸ₯΅

Changes in the market result in opportunities for those looking.

Pat yourself on the back for investing in your market IQ and stay focused on spotting the opportunities ahead. πŸš€

Dr. Alex Stewart


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