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Florida's Job Boom: Predicting Real Estate Trends

fed pivot florida home prices jacksonville jobs real estate the fed Dec 18, 2023

What a monumental week!

The Fed has unofficially pivoted away from raising rates. Now, they're looking at cutting rates as early as March next year.

In response, mortgage rates fell ~0.5% down and stocks were up almost 2.75% on the week. 🤯

Can you imagine what home prices are about to do?

Honestly, I'm surprised how quickly their stance changed. Two weeks ago Jerome Powell said they weren't even thinking about cutting rates.

Don't worry, Jerome promises it has nothing to do with the coming election...😉

Yeah..right...uh huh..

We talked in our coaching session about what this means for the housing market. If you want to go deeper, I've got 2 memberships left before I close enrollment. Click here to get yours today and watch the coaching session replay. ðŸ‘¨‍🏫

Shifting gears, I focused on jobs this week. 

Logically, we know that if an area increases in employment, housing will benefit.

What do the numbers say? 🤔

Comparing payrolls in the U.S. to National home prices shows us that the two are 90% correlated.

That means that usually as we create more jobs, real estate prices rise and vice versa. 💡

The same is true for Jacksonville (and most metros in the country).

With that knowledge, let's see where jobs are growing which can show us the markets set to outperform in 2024! 🔍


Where are Jobs Growing In Florida?

Like most things, job growth varies throughout the state.

Above, you can see colored dots for the major metro areas across Florida. These help us to see areas of high and low growth.

Here’s the 5 metro areas with the highest growth in Florida:

1️⃣ Homosassa Springs: +4.2%
2️⃣ Jacksonville: +4.0%
3️⃣ Cape Coral: +3.6%
4️⃣ The Villages: +3.1%
5️⃣ Panama City: +2.8% 

For context, Florida as a whole is growing at 2.9% while the U.S. has a growth rate of 1.9%.

This puts things in perspective on how strong Florida's economy is. 💪

In fact, here are the worst performing metros:

1️⃣ Naples: +0.4%
2️⃣ Sebring: +1.5%
3️⃣ Palm Bay: +1.5%
4️⃣ Lakeland: 1.5%
5️⃣ Ocala: 1.7%

It says a lot when the worst markets are still growing over 1% with the exception of Naples.


What Are the Top Metros for Job Growth?

What about markets outside Florida?

The graphic above highlights the top 20 markets for job growth in October.

Here's the top 10 in detail:

1️⃣ Charleston, SC: 6.1%
2️⃣ Midland, TX: 5.1%
3️⃣ Boise City, ID: 4.5%
4️⃣ Durham, NC: 4.4%
5️⃣ Salinas, CA: 4.4%
6️⃣ Idaho Falls, ID: 4.3%
7️⃣ Jacksonville, FL: 4.0%
8️⃣ Dover, DE: 3.8%
9️⃣ McAllen, TX: 3.8%
🔟 Knoxville, TN: 3.7% 

To make the list, the metro has to have at least 100,000 in population.

What stands out to me is that most these places are relatively small (just 100-300k people).

Impressively, Jacksonville is the only major metro in the top 10! 😎


Finding Opportunity 

Here's what you need to know:

  • 🧐 Follow the Jobs: If you want to get a good read on if a market will be strong or weak, look at the job growth in the area. The two measures are highly related.
  • 🏖️ Florida Will Continue to Shine: Naples was the only metro in Florida with less than 1% job growth. This points to continued strength across the state moving forward.
  • 📈 Smaller Metros Offer Greater Opportunity: Many of the places experiencing the best job growth are smaller. You'll get the benefit of lower prices and higher growth considering smaller cities when investing in real estate.
  • 🚀 Buckle Up for 2024: We don't know exactly what to expect, but if rates continue their trend lower it's about to get wild. The music is about to start playing and it will be house swapping time. 

Don't quit early. Those who are showing up these last couple weeks will benefit from their efforts.

Get your people ready to take advantage of the opportunity ahead.

And if you need some guidance, I'm here to help.

Let's ride! 🏇

Dr. Alex Stewart


Whenever you're ready, there are 3 ways I can help you:

  1. 🎯 Market Insiders Coaching Membership: Join an exclusive group of Realtors focused on becoming experts in our local Jacksonville market. This membership gives you access to monthly live coaching from yours truly, a member-only community for private updates and discussions, and additional resources to address clients questions and supercharge your business.

    Rated 9.65 out of 10 for value to their business by my members.

  2. 👩‍💻 How to Use Market Stats in Your Business: Accelerate your business growth by learning how to use data. This course will help you more easily understand the market, improve your client presentations, and increase your conversion rate with clients. No finance degree required as I lay everything out in very simple terms.

    Rated 9.84 out of 10 for value to their business by 100+ Realtors.

  3. 📊 Schedule a live presentation: Want to learn in person? I offer the MarketPulse 360 presentation that connects all the dots (national to local) so you get a comprehensive breakdown of today's market. It's 2 hours of beautiful charts designed to give you all the major trends you need to know about and address the most common questions in the market. You'll walk out feeling more confident, with resources to use in your business, and a level above the rest of the Realtors who are wandering around blindly.

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