One of the biggest trends to watch related to real estate is the number of retirees moving to the sunshine state.

An estimated 30.4 million baby boomers are turning 65 over the next 4 years. 🤯

Even if we assume just a small slice of that group actually retires and relocates, it's plausible that Florida could continue to see a home buyer boost of 50-100k a year.

States getting a retirement boost

According to a study by SmartAsset, 171,343 retirees (people over 65) moved to the Sunshine state and 94,053 moved out.

This leaves us with a net gain of 77,290. 👍

Unfortunately, Census stats run a year or two behind.

For reference, this study was conducted in 2024 using data from 2022.

We certainly know relocation to Florida was huge from 2020-2023 and we'll have to see if the trend continued in 2024

That said, let's go a little deeper..

Cities getting a retirement boost

Next, let's look at which cities are getting a boost.

Above, I've filtered the results to show just Florida cities.

It doesn't show were all 77,000 people went, but it gives us an idea of which areas grew and which areas didn't. 

The Tampa area lead the state with St. Pete and Clearwater ranking 4 and 10 nationally (and Tampa proper neutral at 106). ⛵️

Jacksonville came in at 29th in the U.S. with a net gain of 637 people.

One point to note is that the study doesn't call out several retiree hot spots: The Villages, Naples, & Punta Gorda.

They likley account for the rest of that 77,000. 

Finding Opportunity

I was asked at a recent presentation how Jacksonville's retiree housing supply looks.

Now, retirees can buy any property they'd like, but there's a special class of properties built specifically for older people worth examining.

In case you don't know, this refers to 55+ communities ("senior" housing that is age restricted to those 55 years or older). 

In other places, like South Florida, they're referred to as HOPA (housing for older people). 

I pulled the stats to show where the active 55+ supply is around Jacksonville, the median price over time, and how many properties are typically for sale:

It is a little surprising to know we generally only have between 100-300 properties for sale in this category in a metro of 1.7 million.

That feels like a small number. 🤷‍♂️

Also, most of the inventory is in St. Johns county.

Overall, a couple specific opportunities related to all this information stand out to me:

1. If an area would like to capitalize on the retirement wave, it would make sense to develop properties catering to those individuals. The Villages is a prime example and population there has grown from 45,000 in 2011 to 85,000 in 2024.
   
   
2. If you're looking to add to your real estate business, you might consider specializing in helping retirees. There's a whole host of challenges this segment faces and gaining unique expertise in solving them could get your business into a growing segment of the market. 💡

Lastly, this is a prime example of how you can use market data to plan and grow your business.

Instead of throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks, consider going into 2025 with an informed strategy that's built on fundamental trends that can carry you to growth in the coming years. 🚀

Dr. Alex Stewart
Founder

Q: What are the current real estate trends for retirees in Florida?

A: Many retirees are flocking to Florida due to its warm weather, purposely designed retirement communities, and lower cost of living compared to other states. The housing market remains competitive, with real estate agents noting a rise in interest for affordable housing options, particularly in cities like Jacksonville, The Villages, and Sarasota.

Q: How does Florida's cost of living compare to other states for retirees?

A: Florida offers a lower cost of living than many high-cost states, making it an attractive retirement destination. The absence of a state income tax also adds to the financial benefits for retirees on a fixed income. Further, the homestead property tax exemption helps limit rising property tax costs as primary residence properties are capped at a maximum of a 3% increase each year - a huge benefit to homeowners in Florida.

Q: What should retirees know about home prices in Florida?

A: Home prices in Florida can vary significantly by region. Coastal areas like Miami tend to have a higher cost of living, while inland towns often provide more affordable housing options. It's crucial for retirees to work with a realtor familiar with local market conditions.

Q: Are there any tax benefits for retirees living in Florida?

A: Yes, Florida doesn’t impose a state income tax which can be advantageous for retirees, especially those relying on social security and retirement savings. This can help stretch a fixed income further.

Q: What are the insurance rates like for homeowners in Florida?

A: Insurance costs in Florida, particularly for home insurance, can be higher due to factors like hurricane risk. Retirees should shop around for the best rates and consider the potential impact of insurance on their overall cost of living.

Q: What role do real estate agents play for retirees moving to Florida?

A: Real estate agents are essential for retirees looking to navigate the Florida housing market. They can help identify properties that meet specific needs, understand local amenities, and find affordable housing options.

Q: How are inflation and rising interest rates affecting the Florida housing market?

A: Inflation and rising interest rates can impact home prices and affordability. Many retirees are feeling the pinch as costs skyrocket, and it's important for them to consider these factors when planning their retirement in Florida.

Q: Why is Sarasota considered a popular retirement destination?

A: Sarasota is known for its beautiful beaches, vibrant arts scene, and lower cost of living, making it a highly sought-after retirement destination. Many retirees find it an ideal place to enjoy their golden years.

Q: What are some common concerns for retirees moving to Florida?

A: Common concerns include the high cost of home insurance, the risk of hurricanes, and finding affordable housing. Retirees should thoroughly research these factors to ensure a smooth transition to living in Florida.

Q: What are the current real estate trends for retirees looking to move to Florida?

A: Many retirees are flocking to Florida due to its warm weather and lack of state income tax. The real estate market is competitive, with home prices in popular areas like Sarasota and Miami seeing significant increases. However, many still find affordable housing options if they know where to look.

Q: How does the cost of living in Florida compare to other states for retirees?

A: Florida generally offers a lower cost of living compared to many other states, particularly in coastal cities. While some areas have a high cost of living, towns like Sarasota provide more affordable housing options, making it easier for retirees on a fixed income to thrive.

Q: What tax benefits do retirees in Florida enjoy?

A: Florida does not impose a state income tax, which is a major draw for many retirees. Additionally, property taxes are generally lower than the national average, allowing retirees to keep more of their social security benefits and savings during their golden years.

Q: How do insurance rates affect retirees looking to buy real estate in Florida?

A: Insurance rates, particularly home insurance rates, can be higher in Florida due to risks like hurricanes. It's important for retirees to factor in these costs when budgeting for a new home in the state and to shop around for the best rates from insurers. Keep in mind, Florida has already experienced the rise in insurance costs that is now echoing throughout the United States. Most states are facing insurance challenges with rising costs related to wildfires, severe storms, and higher replacement costs for properties.

Q: What types of housing are popular among retirees in Florida?

A: Many retirees prefer condos or 55+ communities that offer amenities and maintenance-free living. These options often provide a lower cost of living and the opportunity to connect with other retirees. With a large number of planned unit development (PUD) communities throughout Florida, retirees can find more options with amenities and community benefits not found in other states.

Q: How has the Florida housing market changed in 2024?

A: In 2024, Florida’s housing market has made the headlines for the significant increase in the number of properties for sale since 2022. This is a market that is normalizing after nearly selling out of homes to buy in the boom of 2020 and 2021. Price increases have slowed as supply has increased and buyers have an opportunity to negotiate for a range of things during a transaction. A large number of properties are off the market long-term as higher rates have locked homeowners into their house for the foreseeable future. This has limited inventory and serves as one of many reasons why a 2008-type housing crash is incredibly unlikely.

Q: What should retirees consider before moving to Florida?

A: Retirees should consider factors such as the overall cost of living, property taxes, insurance rates, and access to healthcare. It’s also important to research specific towns and neighborhoods to find the ideal place that fits their lifestyle and budget.

Q: Are there any risks associated with buying real estate in Florida for retirees?

A: Yes, retirees should be aware of potential risks like inflation affecting home prices and the possibility of natural disasters like hurricanes. It's essential to have a comprehensive insurance policy and to stay informed about the housing market trends.